Liberals formally abandon net zero by 2050 but Ley says reaching target would still be ‘welcome outcome’

Liberal leader Sussan Ley has defended the Liberal plan to dump legislated pledges for net zero and renewable energy while claiming to be committed to the Paris agreement, saying “I can deal with that” if she faces criticism for backsliding on climate targets.

The Liberal party will abandon a firm net zero emissions target, siding with the Nationals to end the Coalition’s commitment to the climate goal, in a bid to pursue what Ley and energy spokesperson Dan Tehan called “energy abundance” by supporting nuclear power, and backing coal and gas.

But in an at-times confusing press conference, Ley said it would still be a “welcome outcome” if they managed to reach net zero emissions anyway, despite planning to junk Labor government legislation and renewable targets which support such an outcome.

“I could not be more clear when I say we are removing net zero targets and long-term targets from our policy. We are not pursuing a policy of net zero,” Ley said in Canberra on Thursday.

The Liberal shadow ministry on Thursday agreed a future Coalition government would remove a net zero by 2050 commitment, as well as removing Labor’s legislated 43% emissions reduction target by 2030 and its 82% renewables target.

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However the Liberal plan would not include withdrawing from the Paris agreement, which was a red line that could have prompted the resignation of moderate Liberals such as Andrew Bragg and Maria Kovacic. In an olive branch to moderates who wanted the target retained, MPs will also be free to argue that reaching net zero would be a “welcome outcome” in the future, two sources confirmed to Guardian Australia.

In her press conference, Ley would not clarify how a Coalition government could stay in the Paris agreement – which does not allow backsliding on targets – while scrapping legislated emissions reduction goals. Ley said the opposition’s plan would place energy affordability above climate considerations.

“I’m not going to say there is some detail in an international agreement that prevents us from doing what we know we need to be doing for Australians,” she said.

Ley claimed the opposition’s alternative was “a plan to bring down emissions and to provide affordable energy … if there are reasons why people in Paris or in some United Nations organisation don’t like it, I can deal with that.”

Ley and Tehan claimed the Liberal party would reduce emissions “on average year-on-year, for every five-year period” of Australia’s nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement. It would be based on what they called “doing our fair share” while “considering the real performance of comparable countries”, while focusing on technology advancements rather than mandating approaches or methods.

Net zero emissions is a target that has been adopted by governments, companies and other organisations to eliminate their contribution to the climate crisis. It is sometimes called “carbon neutrality”.

The climate crisis is caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere, where they trap heat. They have already caused a significant increase in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels recorded since the mid-20th century. 

Countries and others that set net zero emissions targets are pledging to stop their role in worsening this by cutting their climate pollution and balancing out whatever emissions remain by sucking an equivalent amount of CO2 out of the atmosphere.

This could happen through nature projects – tree planting, for example – or using carbon dioxide removal technology.

CO2 removal from the atmosphere is the “net” part in net zero. Scientists say some emissions will be hard to stop and will need to be offset. But they also say net zero targets will be effective only if carbon removal is limited to offset “hard to abate” emissions. Fossil use will still need to be dramatically reduced.

After signing the 2015 Paris agreement, the global community asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess what would be necessary to give the world a chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C.

The IPCC found it would require deep cuts in global CO2 emissions: to about 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, and to net zero by about 2050.

The Climate Action Tracker has found more than 145 countries have set or are considering setting net zero emissions targets. 

The frontbench meeting followed an almost five-hour gathering of the Liberal party room on Wednesday, in which a majority of MPs voiced support for ditching the Scott Morrison-era net zero by 2050 target.

That was despite the party’s federal director, Andrew Hirst, telling MPs that voters equated net zero with action on climate change.

Three Liberals and three Nationals will be now tasked with thrashing out a joint Coalition position, which will be put to the joint party room on Sunday.

The Nationals’ Matt Canavan, Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald will represent the country party in the talks, while Dan Tehan, Anne Ruston and Jonathon Duniam will represent the Liberal party.

While a future Coalition government would not pull out of the Paris agreement, the promise to abandon a net zero target may put Australia in breach of its obligations under the pact, which requires that countries do not backslide on their emissions reduction goals.

At the press conference, Tehan could not specify how the Coalition would lower emissions while undoing the Labor government’s clean energy incentives and extending the life of coal-fired power stations. He pointed to the Coalition’s previous record in office, and said their plan included “throwing all technologies at emissions reduction”.

Tehan gave the example of carbon capture and storage – an expensive and still-developing technology which has not yielded major emissions reduction goals despite large investments from government and private businesses.

Tehan confirmed the government’s capacity investment scheme, which underwrites renewable energy and storage projects, would be opened to other energy projects – the same position as the National party.

Speaking before Ley’s announcement, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said the Coalition was walking away from a net zero emissions target because it “fundamentally” doesn’t believe in the science of climate crisis.

“Have no doubt the Coalition approach would hurt Australians. It would lead to less investment, less reliability, less jobs, less economic growth. It would also damage our relationships in the region, including relationships on security,” Albanese said.

Albanese said the sight of Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie walking side-by-side into Wednesday’s party room meeting showed the Liberals were a “divided rabble” and a “clown show”.

Earlier on Thursday, the Liberal senator and net zero supporter, Andrew McLachlan, warned it would be “very difficult” to win back city electorates if it dumped the climate target.

Asked to respond to the view of some colleagues that abandoning the target could be a vote winner, McLachlan said: “You’re wrong.”

“If you’re going to argue that we’re going to abandon net zero, you’re going to be very alone in the community and also the business community. I think all levels of community have moved on,” he told ABC’s RN Breakfast.

Asked whether the Coalition could win back city seats, Ley said, “we will be pitching for and presenting serious credible compelling policy alternatives at the next election. They do include the city seats.”